HURRICANE HUNCHES 2022

BY DAVIN ROSE

KONK LIFE STAFF WRITER

The revised forecast for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is in, and the weather wizards conclude that if you buy your storm gear now, you’re going to get your moneys worth. If Tropical Storm Alex is any indicator as to what is to come, they’re right. On average, Key West receives 40.2” of rain annually, most of which is tropical storm or hurricane based, and falls during the months of August and September. At the beginning of June, TS Alex let loose an astounding 11” locally, and in excess of 14” further north near Miami and Hollywood, nearly 25% of a years worth of rain in just over a day. With above average temperatures credited for the beefy seasonal predictions and the heavy activity so far, the 2022 storm season is hot out of the gate.

According to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this years Hurricane Season breaks down as follows: 65% chance of Above Normal Storm Activity, 25% chance of a Normal Season, and 10% chance of Below Normal Storm Activity. This translates into a predicted 14.4 Named Storms, 7.2 Hurricanes, of which 3.2 are predicted to be major, that is Category 3 or larger. These are average numbers from a collective of over 15 research institutions, including the aforementioned NOAA, as well as (TSR) Tropical Storm Risk, (CSU) Colorado State University, and (UKMO) United Kingdoms Met Office.

All this follows the devastation of last years hurricane season, which was the third busiest on record, and the second year in a row we had more named storms than names. Hurricane Ida, making landfall in Luisiana, claimed last years title with a reported 107 US deaths, and property damage over $75 billion. Usually hurricane names are recycled every six years, that is unless the damage and loss of life is catastrophic, then they are retired out of respect for the irreparable ruin. Hurricane Katrina, Dorian, Irma, and Ida are a few examples.  

Hurricanes were originally named for whichever Saints Day they happened to occur near, but as storm tracking technology improved, enabling multiple storms to be tracked simultaneously, it became clear that a new naming system working on an international stage was necessary. The old practice of naming storms changed before the end of the 19th Century, when Australian meteorologist Clement Wragge began naming all storms after women.  Despite Mr. Wragge’s apparent relationship issues, this practice continued until 1978, with a short 2 year stent in the early 50’s when the military used the phonetic alphabet to name storms.

There currently exists six lists of storm names, both male and female, that are recycled every six years with the exception of any storms that are retired out of respect. This years list (see photo) was used in 2016, with substitutions for Hurricane Mathew and Otto, and will be used again in 2028 with the exception of any potentially retired names. I look forward to early December when we all gather to soak this seasons hurricane flags in rum, and set those squares on fire. Until then, fair weather and following seas.

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