Technology, experience relied upon
to fend off post-Wilma hurricane threats
BY TERRY SCHMIDA
At first, people laughed at the Flintstonesque name, bought bottles of rum, and prepared to party.
Then they became uneasy, as forecasters predicted a flooded Florida Keys.
Finally, all hell broke loose, as the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin lived up to its billing, sowing death and destruction, and leaving shattered dreams and disbelief in its wake.
The storm was named Wilma, and though it wasn’t even the most damaging blow of the record-setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, it nonetheless earned its place in local lore as a true scourge upon the Keys.
Wilma changed everything: Overnight, property values collapsed, presaging the national real estate meltdown by two years. Not that overworked, underpaid renters could take advantage of the situation. Many of them lost all their belongings, as well as their jobs. In addition, some rental properties were condemned.
Some remain shuttered to this day.
Less important, but still notable, Fantasy Fest was delayed, then rescheduled, then held twice – a confusing logistical nightmare for its organizers, and for the workers trying to pay bills in a tourist-based economy.
For county officials who lived through the drudgery and despair, though, the drive has been strong to ensure such a scenario never again takes place.
“There have been many improvements since Wilma that are good news for the Keys,” said County Administrator Roman Gastesi. “The technology is certainly much better. There’s a new storm surge model that will make early forecasting of flooding much more accurate. We saw a presentation on that recently in Marathon. Forecasting in general has improved tremendously.
“[Hurricanes] Irene and Sandy went up the coast, and they stayed right on the Gulfstream all the way up to New York,” Gastesi continued. “We had this hurricane right off the coast, and we were able to watch it go right by, because we knew where it was headed. Five or 10 years ago, we would have had a totally different mindset. We probably would have ordered an evacuation.”
And as Gastesi is painfully aware, hurricane evacuations cost the county dearly.
“The average tourist in the Keys spends $175 per day,” he said. “On an average day, we have between 15,000 and 50,000 tourists spending between $5,000,000 and $15,000,000. False alarms can be really damaging, economically, to the county.”
Fortunately for Monroe, not only has forecasting improved greatly in the past decade, but the Keys comprise the only jurisdiction in Florida with its very own weather center.
“As far as I know, we’re the only county that has one all to ourselves,” said County Director of Emergency Management Irene Toner. “We’re working very closely with them. I know exactly what their emergency plans are, and they know exactly what my plans are going to be.”
Toner said that the only thing her emergency management team worries about before and during the June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season each year, is the sense of complacency that comes from going for long periods without a major storm.
“Even though they’re predicting a very mild season we just can’t sit back to relax,” Toner said. “Two things that are unpredictable are mother nature, and human nature. They predicted a calm season the year [1992] that Hurricane Andrew hit.”
Toner stressed the need for residents to prepare a plan to deal with the very real possibility of a 2015 hurricane or strong tropical storm.
“You need to know where you’re going to be headed, if you’re not planning to stay at a shelter, especially for a category three storm or higher,” she said. “You’re going to want to make sure you have cash, extra medication, water, batteries, canned food, and also additional food and water for any pets. By all means, enjoy the blue skies and fishing and diving, but keep in mind that it could all change tomorrow.”
Roman Gastesi has his own plan.
“Our Emergency Operations Center is the County Commission chamber in Marathon,” he said. “It takes about two to four hours to set up, and five of us have to decide if and when to do so. They include the mayor, myself, the sheriff, the county emergency manager, and the county fire chief. We’ve already sat down to discuss the possibility, because it’s going to be [Danny Kolhage’s] first hurricane season as mayor. It’s not like we just suddenly sit down and decide to declare an emergency. We’re constantly talking with each other, and with state and national weather centers.”
And if this season should be another busy one, such as those of 2004 and ’05?
“Look, the year of Andrew, when there were only two hurricanes,” Gastesi said. “The first one wasn’t until Aug. 24. That’s late for a first storm. But look at how much destruction that one caused. It only takes one. So, if you have a year with 10 hurricanes and none of them come ashore, then who cares?”
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