Letter to the Editor / IMPOSE DETERRENTS BEFORE RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE – NOT AFTER

By Roger C. Kostmayer

Russian president Putin’s most important goal is to recreate the Soviet Union, and he sees what he hopes is his best opportunity.  His modus operandi is to push, probe, threaten and then grab whatever he can – including militarily occupying all of his neighbors.  This philosophy is called “might makes right”.

Putin sees a sycophantic former US president, Trump, who did everything he could to help Putin and weaken NATO and the European Union;  along with a pandemic, the US focus on China and a politically divided adversary in the US.  Putin already invaded Ukraine once and is now pushing hard by surrounding Ukraine with troops that are estimated at 127,000.  Until recently, the West’s response has been soft.

In order to avoid and deter a tragic dictatorial event, the US and our allies must understand  Putin’s fears and vulnerabilities.  The short answer is destabilization in Russia and the realistic fear that having too many body bags returning to Russian families could cause the domestic scales to tip against Putin.  Only secondarily are there serious concerns about damage to the Russian one-trick-pony gas/oil economy.  But if there was a unified world wide objection, an anti-invasion bloc, to Russia’s dangerous violation of international law and unacceptable behavior, it too would have an impact. Statesmanship is still a powerful deterrent when coupled with serious action.

The world has been too slow to react unequivocally but recently the US, NATO and our allies are stepping up and sending anti-tank and other weapons to Ukraine while sending ships, fighter jets, and probably troops, to Eastern Europe.  These are not things the Russians wanted to happen, but they may help persuade them to avoid a terrible, long lasting cold war mistake.

Only pain and fear will cause Putin to withdraw his troops.

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