That means candidates may need to cement their planning soon, even if they’d prefer to wait longer. The Republican National Committee has scheduled the first debate for August and is expected to set strict benchmarks that candidates must satisfy to participate, including amassing tens of thousands of individual donors.
“That takes a little time to do and so if you’re gong to be serious about this — and I think you have to be on the stage to be serious about it — then you probably have to make the decision by May,” Christie said this week during an interview with the media outlet Semafor.
In the meantime, candidates-in-waiting have seen little reason to jump in sooner, particularly given Trump’s propensity to attack. Instead, they have been biding their time, visiting early voting states, delivering speeches and wooing donors as they assess the field. Pence, for instance, was in California this week meeting with potential backers and will host another donor retreat for his nonprofit group in late May.
“If I was in their shoes, I would wait as long as possible,” said former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who was considered an early favorite for the Republican nomination when he ran against Trump in 2016. He remembers realizing, in those early weeks, how dramatically Trump had upended the race, dominating everything.
“There was no way around it then,” he said. “And right now, anybody who thinks they’re somehow going to go in and change that is missing the reality.”
The rivalry between Trump and DeSantis has been turning uglier by the day, with political groups supporting both men already spending millions on attack ads.
While DeSantis has largely ignored Trump’s jabs questioning his commitment to Social Security, his relationship with young girls as a teacher decades ago and even his sexuality, a pro-DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down, began to respond in its first round of paid ads last weekend.
“Trump should fight Democrats, not lie about Gov. DeSantis,” the narrator says in an ad that ran on Fox News. “What happened to Donald Trump?”
The spot ran in conjunction with an online attack ad that described Trump as “a coward” and a “gun grabber” geotargeted to attendees at an RNC donor retreat in Indiana.
Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., meanwhile, has been airing its own trio of spots on cable news channels highlighting DeSantis’ votes to cut Social Security and Medicare and raise the retirement age.
“The more you learn about DeSantis, the more you see he doesn’t share our values. He’s just not ready to be president,” said the narrator in one. Another seized on a report that DeSantis once ate pudding with his fingers, urging DeSantis “to keep his pudding fingers off our money.”
Trump and his campaign have long seen DeSantis as his only serious challenger and believed the more crowded the field, the better for Trump, as candidates split the anti-Trump vote. But a repeat of 2016′s massive field hasn’t materialized, with potential candidates like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan passing on campaigns.
There are still plenty of unknown dynamics, including whether governors such as Kristi Noem of South Dakota or Chris Sununu of New Hampshire will launch campaigns. Both Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Virginia Gov. Glen Youngkin have said they are focused on other races, but neither has explicitly ruled out a run, leaving open the possibility they could mount late-entry bids.
Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist and longtime Christie adviser, believes that Trump is the favorite but nonetheless beatable. He cautioned that races are complicated, with unexpected outcomes.
“I do think that DeSantis is right now firmly the alternative to Trump, but I don’t know if it stays that way. There’s still way too long to go,” he said, arguing that a debate moment or news story could change the trajectory.
“Somebody’s just got to get momentum,” he said. “It’s just so wide open even with Trump being the prohibitive favorite.”
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