Letter to the Editor / KNOWN UNKNOWNS 

By Roger C. Kostmayer

America is eleven months away from a presidential election, which is both a political eternity and a looming event.  Anything is possible, but the probable is limited.

A few known unknowns are: The make up of the Democratic ticket – their choice for president and vice president; The impact of a presidential impeachment on both the public and US Senators; The Electoral College vote in 2020; Whether next year’s elections will be fair and interference free;  And, will the economy feel good or bad to average voters next Fall.

There are also a few unknown unknowns, and they include:  New legal rulings by the courts; What Trump’s tax returns reveal;  Possible “smoking gun” testimony from key actors at legal risk, such as Bolton, Pompeo, Pence, Giuliani, McGahn, Mulvaney, Barr and others; and what the final Republican ticket will look like in November 2020.

To get elected or reelected to our highest office, a candidate must get sufficient popular votes to win those states that produce a majority of electoral votes. For this incumbent president to have a reasonable path to reelection, he must win exactly the right states, as he did (with support from Russia and Putin in 2016) by 77,000 votes.  The polls and data show a president who has never been able to reach 50% approval (of the popular vote), “under water” today in states he needs to win. The key swing states in 2016 were Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where he is now behind by 14%, 14% and 7% respectively. Surprisingly, the President is also minus 13% in both Iowa and Minnesota, and minus 5% in Ohio.  Even two blockbuster states Trump won, Florida and Texas, are close, only plus 1% and 5% today and getting closer.

The conclusion for Democrats and others who are concerned is to work hard and avoid complacency. If they get out the young, educated, suburbanite and minority voters, and continue to draw moderates and Independents who want a return to “normalcy”, they will give America a new President and new Senate Leader next November.

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