Oil Oil Oil

By Louis Petrone

Oil! Oil! Oil! Sort of rhymes with Tora! Tora! Tora! Actually, the two are closely related.

 

Tora is the Japanese code word used on December 7, 1941 to indicate complete surprise had been achieved at Pearl Harbor. The sneak attack had been successful.

 

Oil was the cause/reason for the attack. Since 1937, Japan had been at war with China. The war was the Second Sino-Japanese War. Japan was succeeding. However, the war was eating up its reserves. Especially, oil. Japan’s primary supplier of oil surprisingly was the United States. The U.S. had the capacity at the time to be a major world oil supplier. Japan had no oil its own.

 

The United States did not approve of Japan’s aggression in China. Negotiations had been ongoing to convince Japan to back off. Japan would not.

 

Roosevelt decided a trade embargo was in order. The embargo was put in place. The United States stopped supplying Japan with oil and other raw materials.

 

Japan was in trouble. Oil and other materials were needed. If the United States embargo was permitted to continue, it not only would hurt Japan’s war with China, but also destroy Japan’s economy.

 

From the Japanese perspective, the embargo had to be lifted and lifted swiftly. The result was Pearl Harbor.

 

Here it is 2013 and there is a new Chinese/Japanese confrontation in which the United States is involved. At issue, oil.

 

I refer to the Senkaku Islands dispute. Japan has had title to the Islands based on an 1895 treaty. Other treaties have come into play over the years. Never the less, the legal concurrence is that the Islands belong to Japan.

 

The Senkaku Islands are located in the East China Sea. They are remote and uninhabited. They are not worth spit, as the saying goes. China however has elevated their value as a result of the present dispute.

 

In reality, China does not give a damn about the Senkaku Islands. Their assertion of ownership is a tactic and pretext. Japan wants to retain the Islands because they legally belong to them. It is a matter of face. Face is important to Asians. Japan cannot permit China to steal from them.

 

The core of the despite involves oil.

 

Today’s biggest energy consumer world wide is China. China needs oil and fuel badly all the time and in big doses. It is the lifeline for China’s huge and constantly growing industrial complex. China needs oil independence. They do not want to find themselves in the position the United States has in recent years.

 

China’s real interest lies with the South China Sea. Note again that the Senkaku Islands are in the East China Sea. Asian waters are huge.

 

The South China Sea has sufficient oil and gas reserves to supply China for 45 years. Experts claim that the South China Sea deposits are as large as the Saudi Arabia oil fields were.

 

In addition to China, several smaller nations make claim to portions of the South China Sea. China is neither concerned with nor fears these smaller entities.

 

China’s game has been to create a furor over the Senkaku Islands. Which they do not want nor do they have legal claim thereto. China succeeded.The furor has been created. Japan is fearful of a military conflict. The United States based on treaty is obligated to defend Japan in case of attack.

 

China recently warned nations not to fly in Senkaku Islands air space without first notifying China. In effect, obtaining approval. An assertion of ownership. The United States immediately flew two planes over. The next day, Japan and South Korea did also.

 

All this has been happening in recent weeks.

 

War clouds have appeared. The countries involved are getting uneasy. Secretary of State Kerry has been negotiating between China and Japan to resolve the problem.

 

Note once more that China does not give a damn about the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. They want the islands and waters of the South China Sea where the oil deposits are located.

 

In the meantime, China has recently begun building a naval fleet. China has not had a navy since the 1500s. The reason for the recent construction is to protect the South China Sea which they assume they will ultimately control. China has already constructed and launched an aircraft carrier and many new submarines. Amazing! No navy in more than 500 years and now China is on a speed course in developing a world power one.

 

The United States has concern with China’s navy building. The United States’ naval forces in Asian waters is limited. It has been years since the United States even has had a concern about the size and quality of its naval forces anywhere in the Pacific. Nor is money available to start building new war vessels. There is not a desire on the part of most members of Congress to authorize money for such construction. The United States is in a time of economic distress, austerity and cut backs in programs.

 

I sense another Munich in the making. Chamberlain acceded to Hitler’s demands for Czechoslovakia. Japan’s claim to the Senkaku Islands will be recognized by China. China in turn will be recognized as the power, controlling influence and titleholder to the South China Seas. Japan will have saved face. China will have become decidedly more powerful. The United States will be happy that war has been avoided.

 

Everyone comes out a winner. But…..What happens a number of years from now when China is a major power or the major power and wants something else that is not really theirs. A valid concern.

 

There is a separate and distinct oil based problem in another part of the world. The Falkland Islands. Off the coast of Argentina. Argentina has always laid claim to them. Great Britain, also.

 

In 1982, Margaret Thatcher had Great Britain invade the Falkland Islands to solidify British sovereignty. It was a David and Goliath war. Argentina’s military was no challenge for British military strength.

 

There was no known oil in 1982 in the Falklands. There is today. Massive oil deposits have only recently been discovered in and around the Falkland Islands. Drilling first commenced a mere three years ago in 2010. Argentina wants control of the islands and the money to be made from the oil deposits. Great Britain says no.

 

An election was recently held in the Falkland Islands. Its purpose was to determine whether the people wanted to be British or Argentine. Overwhelmingly, the people voted to remain subject to Great Britain. Argentina is paying no heed to the election results.

 

Great Britain has a major problem in protecting its interests and being the beneficiary of the oil reserves. Britain’s Army, Navy and Air Force of today are no where near as large and powerful as in 1982. Britain has neither the money nor manpower to wage a war.

 

It is oil all over again. The question is will the need for oil lead to another Tora! Tora! Tora!

 

I do not know the answer. No one does. Let us hope not.

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